Thursday, May 15, 2014

On whether Singaporeans are Xenophobic





When I read news like how anti-foreign protesters are burning down factories in Vietnam, I question whether Singaporeans are really xenophobic. Despite our grouses against an increasingly foreign population crowding out our infrastructure and job market, we do not burn factories or murder foreigners or push aliens onto subway tracks.



In fact, Singaporeans are far from xenophobic. When Mainland Chinese, Huang Na was murdered by a Malaysian on local soil, we opened our wallets and donated enough money for her mother to buy a bungalow. When a Thai girl fell onto the MRT tracks and lost her legs, we donated money to cover her hospital fees and more. When disasters occur in neighboring countries, Singaporeans are always among the first to offer help and relief.



The people and government officials who accuse Singaporeans of xenophobia have taken our good nature for granted. For 40 years Singaporeans have never rioted or went on strike. The first non-sanctioned strike in modern times involved only Mainland Chinese bus drivers. The first riot since independence that resulted in many torched vehicles was committed not by Singaporeans but by Indian foreign workers. Another strike we had that involved SIA pilots was instigated by Malaysians who, subsequently got their PRs revoked by none other than Minister Mentor, Lee Kuan Yew.

Now, I am ranting here not to promote xenophobia but to remind Singaporeans and our critics about who we really are. We are the people who despite working the longest hours in the world and in one of the most unhappy workforce at wages that have not risen faster than inflation levels for the low income group, continue to do so without striking or rioting. We are the people who see our sons and brothers sacrifice their lives, sweat, tears and 2 years and more of their time for an increasingly dichotomous society where foreign talents appear to be able to enjoy this peace and security without any of the sacrifice.

When you think about it, it is almost impossible to find another culture that will take so much shit and sacrifice 2 years of their lives without violently protesting, especially when, every other day governments are being overthrown and heads of states being removed by court or by coup.

We have a lot of things to be thankful to our government for, such as strong administration and relatively low rates of corruption. However, our leaders also need to be thankful that we are an extremely cooperative and hardworking populace. Although we have many complaints. We do not create deadlocks in the streets, shut down airports or throw out the government when faced with growing income inequality and uncertainty for our livelihoods. Instead we try our best to eke out a living by working longer hours, or taking on more jobs. You don't even need to leave the country to see, that this kind of tenacity and behavior is unique to its citizens and not to its government. Compare this to all the times we had a strike or a riot in the past 40 years and you can see that if our government were leading the Chinese, Indians, Vietnamese or Malaysians, the situation will be very much different. 

We get that it is important to be foreigner friendly to attract investors and improve investor confidence. But where possible, we would like to ensure that policies that favors foreigners over locals be eliminated especially since it is the sons of Singapore and not the foreign population who will rise up to defend the country in times of need. If we claim that the reason why Singapore survived the separation from Malaysia is due to the efforts of the ruling party, then the reason why Singapore is the success story it is today must be due to the tenacity and virtues of its citizens.

L.A.M.

Monday, May 12, 2014

L.A.M. on whether the Singapore Flyer is worth S$240 million.

Last week we heard, that the world's second tallest Ferris Wheel didn't manage to convince Merlin Entertainments, the British firm behind the London Eye and Legoland theme parks to acquire it for S$240million.

Singapore Flyer’s woes take a new spin after Merlin talks collapse




When I heard about this news, one of the first things that came to my mind whether the price tag is too high for a giant revolving shape that has a circumference that follows the properties of 2πr.

In order to answer the above question, I decided to do some back of the envelope calculations to find out. Based on 2013 numbers. Merlin Entertainments PLC had an net margin of 12.2% and an ROA of 5.6%

The ROA is the return on asset and is a measure calculated by dividing the Net Income over Total Assets. Since, the asset in question here is the Singapore Flyer and the price tag is $240m. In order not to dilute it's ROA of 5.6%. Merlin Entertainments PLC needs a net income of $13.44m annually to justify purchasing the Singapore Flyer.

The Net Margin is a measure of the Net Income against Total Revenues. At 12.2%, this means that assuming that the Singapore Flyer has a similar Net Margin as the Merlin Entertainments PLC, a Net Income of $13.44m translates to a Revenue of S$110.16m annually.


The Singapore Flyer is a 28 cabin ride which can hold 28 people and operates 16 hours a day. At 37min per cycle, the Singapore Flyer has a maximum capacity 21,952 persons per day or an annual maximum capacity of slightly more than 7.4 million riders. In order to meet the numbers, the Singapore Flyer needs to make $14.89 per person, assuming 100% capacity.


Now let's look at some assumptions. Realistically, attracting 7.4m riders is a tall order. The London Eye, the most popular Ferris Wheel attracts on average 4m visitors a year. Assuming, that somehow, through marketing efforts, synergies, etc, the Singapore Flyer can attract 4m riders a year, the revenues per person required increases to $27.54.

Now , the big question is how much would 4m visitors a year be willing to pay for a 37min ride in a flyer attraction. I did a quick survey and tried to rank various entertainment activities by price

Watching a Movie: $8.50.
Good for 2 hours of entertainment. $4.25/hr.
Universal Studios Singapore: $66. Good for 8 hours of entertainment. $6.60/hr
Marine Life Park: $38. Good for 4 hours of entertainment. $9.50/hr
Adventure Cove Water Park: $36. Good for 4 hours of entertainments. $9/hr

Now at $33 for the Singapore flyer, the pricing is definitely too high for 37min - 1 hr of entertainment value. A more reasonable price would be $5-$9. However, for the purpose of this analysis, I will be a little bit more generous and assume the reasonable price for adult tickets to be $12 and $6 for child tickets in order to attract 4m visitors a year.



Assuming a 2:1 adult to child ratio, the average revenue from Flyer ticket sales per person would be $11. And assuming that the Singapore Flyer on average can attract a dollar for dollar in peripheral revenues from gift shops, rental, special occasions, etc, this puts revenues per person at $22.

Working backwards from this magical number of $22, the ideal price tag for the Singapore Flyer is around $191.71m. As such, at $240m, the Singapore Flyer is overpriced. A more reasonable asking price would be $190m.
 
L.A.M.

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

L.A.M. on Grace Lee's Strait's Times Forum Note About Having Female Only Train Carriages


So I read this gem on the Straits Times Forum by Grace Lee about having female only train carriages. It is very interesting and all until I came across the following point.

"Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males with the middle two for both sexes. 
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.""


There is only one problem with this suggestion. Auntie Lucy is a man dressed as a woman. If she is used for "easy identification" of the cabins, the first two cabins will be filled with cross-dressing men, the middle two with both genders and the last two with men only. The only reason this will reduce the incidence of outrage of modesty on trains is because less women will take public transport, since they can only occupy 1/3 of the trains.

L.A.M.

Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males, with the middle two for both sexes.
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/youth-forum-20140507#sthash.23wLP8MZ.dpuf
Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males, with the middle two for both sexes.
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/youth-forum-20140507#sthash.23wLP8MZ.dpuf
Perhaps the first two carriages can be reserved for females, and the last two for males, with the middle two for both sexes.
Posters of celebrities like Aunty Lucy and Gurmit Singh can be pasted on the train doors for easy identification of the cabins, and staff can help usher passengers during the initial trial period.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/youth-forum-20140507#sthash.23wLP8MZ.dpuf